Wondering if now is a smart time to buy or sell in the Willamette Valley? If you have been scanning headlines but still feel unsure, you are not alone. With a few simple metrics, you can read the market like a pro and make clearer timing decisions. In this guide, you will learn what months of inventory, days on market, and list-to-sale price ratio mean, how they interact, and how to apply them to cities across the valley. Let’s dive in.
The three metrics that matter
Months of inventory (MOI)
Months of inventory estimates how long it would take to sell all current active listings at the recent sales pace. A common formula is: MOI = active listings divided by average monthly closed sales. Shorter time means tighter supply.
Keep in mind a few caveats. Seasonality matters, since MOI often falls in spring and early summer and rises in late fall and winter. New construction and off-market sales can distort the number. Different price bands behave differently too, so entry-level homes often show lower MOI than upper price segments.
Days on market (DOM)
Days on market measures the time from when a home is first publicly listed to when it goes pending with an accepted offer. Some systems report days to contract or days to sale, so it helps to check your local MLS definition.
Watch for resets. If a seller withdraws and relists, DOM may restart, which makes some listings look fresher than they are. Median DOM is usually a better gauge than the average because it reduces the impact of outliers like very slow luxury listings. Also remember that a short DOM can result from a low initial list price, so pair DOM with the list-to-sale ratio for a clearer picture.
List-to-sale price ratio (LSR)
The list-to-sale price ratio is the sale price divided by the list price. You will see two versions: sale price compared to the original list and sale price compared to the final list if there were reductions.
Ratios above 100 percent mean buyers bid above list. Ratios below 100 percent mean buyers negotiated a discount. Be aware that a low initial list price can push the ratio higher. Comparing both original and final list versions and pairing them with DOM gives better context.
Quick rules of thumb
- Months of inventory: under 3 months suggests a seller’s market, around 3 to 6 months is more balanced, and over 6 months points to a buyer’s market.
- Days on market: shorter than the local historical median signals stronger demand, longer suggests softer demand.
- List-to-sale price ratio: above 100 percent points to bidding over list, roughly 95 to 100 percent suggests modest negotiation, below 95 percent hints at buyer advantage that may vary by price band.
Read the signals together
Housing metrics are most useful when you combine them. Here is how to interpret common patterns:
- MOI decreasing, DOM decreasing, LSR rising: the market is accelerating for sellers. Expect faster offers and more competition.
- MOI rising, DOM rising, LSR falling: conditions are cooling. Buyers may gain leverage and sellers may accept more contingencies.
- MOI stable, LSR rising, DOM stable: pressure may be concentrated in specific segments, often entry-level homes. Look deeper by price band.
- Low MOI but long DOM: inventory composition may be skewed. For example, many high-end homes can sit longer while well-priced lower-priced homes move quickly.
What this means if you are buying
In a seller’s market, preparation wins. Consider these steps:
- Get a full pre-approval, not just a pre-qualification.
- Be ready to write clean offers quickly and consider stronger terms like escalation clauses or higher earnest money if appropriate for your goals.
- Focus on listings in your target price band and monitor DOM and LSR weekly to spot competitive segments.
In a balanced or buyer-leaning market, you can take a more measured approach:
- Ask for contingencies, negotiate on price, or request seller-paid closing costs.
- Track price reductions and compare sale price to both original and final list prices to gauge true negotiation room.
- Weigh mortgage rate trends and local comps alongside MOI and DOM before making moves.
What this means if you are selling
In a seller’s market, price to the market and execute a strong launch:
- Set a competitive price based on recent local comps and segment-level MOI and DOM.
- Invest in presentation. Short DOMs can reward smart staging and professional marketing.
- Be clear on strategy if you plan to list competitively to attract multiple offers.
When signals cool, plan for longer timelines and flexible terms:
- Expect more days on market and possible price adjustments. Pre-list inspections can streamline negotiations.
- Target your marketing by price band and property type to reach the right buyers.
- Consider flexible closing dates or other terms that widen the buyer pool.
Willamette Valley context to keep in mind
Submarkets and segmentation
The Willamette Valley is a collection of distinct markets that move at different speeds. Cities like Salem, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany, and McMinnville often have their own patterns for MOI, DOM, and LSR. Urban cores with universities and hospitals tend to show steadier baseline demand, while commuter suburbs and smaller towns can be more volatile. Entry-level price bands usually experience tighter supply and faster movement than upper segments.
Supply constraints and policy
Oregon’s urban growth boundaries and agricultural land protections limit how quickly new housing can be added around many Willamette Valley cities. Local zoning and permitting timelines also create lags between demand signals and new supply. These structural factors can keep MOI lower than in regions without similar policies, especially in popular price ranges.
Seasonality and institutional demand
Expect activity to pick up in spring and early summer, when MOI and DOM commonly tighten. Late fall and winter often bring slower movement. University calendars in Eugene and Corvallis and health sector employment cycles can influence both rental and small-sale markets in those towns, which can nudge local metrics in specific months.
Migration and employment
Housing demand across the valley responds to employment trends in state government, higher education, and health care, as well as migration from elsewhere in Oregon and remote workers. Changes in mortgage rates can expand or shrink the buyer pool. County-level hiring or layoff announcements can shift demand quickly at the submarket level.
Data quirks in smaller towns
Towns with fewer than about 10,000 residents can see large swings in MOI or the list-to-sale ratio due to just a handful of transactions. Off-market builder sales and investor purchases may not be fully captured in active listing counts, so it helps to also watch pending and closed data.
How to track the market like a local
You do not need a data science degree. Follow a simple cadence and focus on signal quality:
- Weekly: monitor new listings, pendings, and closings. A four-week moving average of new pendings shows near-term demand.
- Monthly: review MOI, median DOM, median sale price, median list price, and the list-to-sale ratio by city and county. Compare month over month and year over year.
- Quarterly: check building permits and new-construction starts by county, employment changes, and inventory shifts by price band.
To improve accuracy, use medians rather than averages for DOM and prices, segment by price band and property type, and smooth seasonal noise with rolling averages. If you want a cross-check on inventory tightness, compare MOI to a months-to-contract metric that uses active to pending ratios.
Common pitfalls and how to avoid them
- Relying on a single metric: combine MOI, DOM, LSR, and current mortgage rate context for better decisions.
- Ignoring definitions: DOM can reset on relists. Confirm the MLS definition before comparing areas.
- Overreading small samples: one big sale or a new subdivision can skew medians in smaller towns.
- Misreading list-to-sale ratios: understand whether the ratio uses the original or final list price, especially when reductions were involved.
- Forgetting lag: closed sales are backward-looking. Pending counts are more forward-looking but can still fall through.
Putting it all together
If you are buying, watch for tightening MOI and DOM paired with rising list-to-sale ratios in your price band to time aggressive offers. If you are selling, align your pricing and launch plan with current line-of-sight demand, and be ready to adjust if the signals cool. When you want neighborhood-level guidance for Salem and towns across the valley, a short conversation can save you weeks of guessing. Talk with the local team at Harcourts Elite for a clear read on your segment and a plan that fits your goals.
FAQs
What is months of inventory in real estate?
- Months of inventory estimates how long current listings would take to sell at the recent sales pace, using active listings divided by average monthly closed sales.
How does days on market affect pricing in the Willamette Valley?
- Shorter-than-usual DOM suggests stronger demand and can support firmer pricing, while longer DOM signals softer demand and more room to negotiate.
What does a list-to-sale price ratio over 100 percent mean for buyers?
- It indicates offers are often above list, so you may need faster offers, stronger terms, and a full pre-approval to compete.
Why do small Willamette Valley towns show volatile market metrics?
- Smaller markets can swing from just a few sales, and off-market builder or investor deals may not fully appear in active listing counts.
Should I time my move based on one metric like MOI alone?
- No. Combine MOI, DOM, and list-to-sale ratios with pending trends, local employment news, and building permits for a complete picture.
